A number of Vietnamese export items are at risk of being subject to trade defense investigations.

Many of Vietnam's key export items to major markets such as the US, EU, and Canada are facing a very high risk of trade defense investigations or anti-circumvention measures due to their rapid growth rate and large market share...

The wood and wood products sector is facing trade protection measures in several key export markets. (Illustrative image.)

The Trade Remedies Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade has just announced a list of goods at risk of being subject to trade remedy investigations, origin fraud, and illegal transshipment in Vietnam's export markets. This includes 5 groups of goods, comprising 29 products at risk.

PRESSURE INCREASES IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MARKET

The North American market, particularly the US and Canada, is sending strong warning signals regarding many of Vietnam's export product groups. The shift in supply chains and the rapid growth rate are inadvertently putting purely Vietnamese products under scrutiny by regulatory agencies in these countries.

In the US market, wood and wood products are facing significant risks. A prime example is upholstered sofas with wooden frames. In 2025, Vietnam's exports of this product to the US reached $3.4 billion, representing an 8.8% increase compared to 2024. Currently, this figure accounts for 54.1% of the total US imports of similar products.

Although the US has only applied trade safeguard measures to goods imported from China and has not officially launched investigations into other countries, given the overwhelming market share and continuous growth rate, the risk of the US initiating trade safeguard investigations or anti-tariff measures against Vietnamese sofas is very clear. The obvious lesson from the cases of Vietnamese plywood and kitchen cabinets being subject to tariffs after receiving similar warnings remains relevant.

Besides wood products, supporting industrial products and materials in the US also recorded unusual fluctuations. Exports of aluminum wire and cable to the US are projected to reach $65 million in 2025. Although this figure only accounts for 5.6% of the US import market share, it represents an incredible growth rate of 448% compared to the same period the previous year.

Another example is float glass, which has seen a dramatic surge from $2.3 million in 2024 to $92.2 million in 2025, accounting for 11.6% of total US imports. This rapid growth in a short period is a major catalyst for US authorities considering measures to protect domestic production.

Not only the US, but the Canadian market is also tightening its controls. Exports of upholstered chairs to Canada are expected to reach $180.4 million in 2025, a sharp increase of 44.1%. Notably, Vietnam, along with China, is subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties in Canada. Maintaining its position as the third largest supplier and continuing to increase production, Vietnamese businesses need to prepare themselves for potential reviews that may expand the scope of investigations.

In addition, other products such as welded carbon steel pipes, aluminum profiles, and copper pipes exported to Canada are also on the list of items requiring special monitoring, due to their rapidly increasing value and their crucial positions in the country's supply chain.

STRICT TECHNICAL BARRIERS IN THE EU MARKET

The EU is known for its stringent standards, and in 2025, the region will continue to strengthen trade defense measures against a range of industrial and steel products originating from Vietnam.

Steel and steel products are currently the focus of attention in the EU market. Vietnam's cold-rolled flat steel exports to the EU are projected to reach US$167.6 million in 2025, a significant increase of 39.2%. Although its current share is only 8.7%, this rapid growth is putting the Vietnamese steel industry at risk of anti-dumping investigations if the trend continues.

Similarly, organic-coated steel and cold-rolled stainless steel also recorded very high growth. In particular, cold-rolled stainless steel boomed with a 124.7% increase, reaching $144.1 million. The EU has now imposed anti-dumping duties on this product from many partners such as China, Taiwan, India, and Indonesia, creating an extremely sensitive legal environment for Vietnamese businesses.

Besides steel, the group of manufactured industrial products and consumer materials exported to the EU is also not immune to this trend. Exports of truck and bus tires to the EU are projected to reach US$336.5 million in 2025, an increase of 22.3%. Vietnam currently ranks as the third largest supplier to the entire bloc. Similarly, steel wind turbine towers are expected to reach US$285 million in export value, and hand pallet trucks US$47.8 million.

Although this opens up many opportunities to gain market share when major competitors like China are subjected to safeguard tariffs, Vietnam's new leading position also comes with the risk of becoming the next target of investigation.

A crucial point emphasized by authorities regarding the EU market is the issue of raw material origin. For example, for flat-rolled steel products coated or tin-plated, and high-strength polyester fibers, domestic businesses are strictly prohibited from using primary raw materials directly imported from China for processing and export. Using materials from countries subject to tariffs could easily lead to Vietnamese products becoming targets of highly complex anti-circumvention investigations.

Besides traditional markets, the early warning list also notes scattered risks in several other potential regions such as Australia, Mexico, India, and Indonesia. This indicates that the trend of trade protectionism is spreading globally and is not excluding any segment.

In Australia, three steel products – hot-rolled structural steel, hollow structural steel, and galvanized steel – are all experiencing a surge in imports from Vietnam. Most alarmingly, hot-rolled structural steel has seen a growth rate of 105.8%, accounting for 26.1% of Australia's total import market share.

Similarly, Mexico is closely monitoring Vietnam's prestressed steel wire ropes and polyester resins, as both have seen a surge in exports and now hold significant market shares ranging from 30% to over 42% in the country.

Source: vneconomy.vn